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01
Sep

Webinar: Predictive Modelling and Forecasting of Fruit Flies in Australia

6 September 2021 (2pm AEST)

Please join the National Fruit Fly Council for a webinar on Predictive Modelling and Forecasting of Fruit Flies in Australia Project. The project is being led by the Department of Agriculture, Water, and the Environment. The webinar will include an overview of the project and relevant talks. Work in this area provides opportunities to explore and develop innovative tools and techniques to support Australia’s trade environment.

Presentations

Amit K. Singh (Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, DAWE)

Dr Singh outlined the program of work that DAWE are investigating in to integrate and unify predictive modelling platforms for fruit flies in Australia as part of the Australian government’s investment in Smart Fruit Fly Management Measure.

Hazel Parry (CSIRO) 

Area-Wide Management of Qfly: ​Insights from Spatial Modelling

Speaking on Area-Wide Management (AWM)of fruit fly, specifically her team’s landscape-scale spatial modelling research. AWM requires input from the whole community and is a proven management approach for mobile pests around the world, employing a united strategy to target all pest habitats within a well-defined area or region to reduce the total pest population.

Dr Parry dives into three different spatial models, how they work, and how they inform our understanding of fruit fly behaviour, population dynamics and distribution.

Linda Beaumont (Macquarie University)

Shoo Fly! Using Species Distribution Models to Inform Climate Change-Driven Shifts in Fruit Fly Distributions

A high-level presentation on species distribution models and climate change impacts. Touching on the clear biological response of insects as a result of climate change, and how these changes can affect us globally and locally. A/Prof Beaumont explains what climate change means for fruit fly species distribution across Australia; looking at forecasts, she shows us how those patterns in distribution will likely change as climate change continues.

James Camac (CEBRA)

A Pragmatic Framework for Mapping Establishment Potential of Plant Pests

Dr Camac speaks on his research developing a practical framework for mapping where potential plant pests may establish themselves, focusing on early detection and surveillance. Explaining why there is a need for pragmatism, Dr Camac presents a framework to make decisions with imperfect and incomplete data that can be used for exotic species and established pests.

Richard Bradhurst (CEBRA)

Modelling The Spread, Detection, And Control of Exotic and Endemic Plant Pests

A presentation on modelling approaches for simulating pest and disease outbreaks, this presentation is rich with examples from animal, plant, insect, and human health. Dr Bradhurst presents how these models can shape policy using simulations to show what would happen if different variables were introduced.

Tom Kompas (CEBRA)

The Economics of Optimal Fruit Fly Trapping

Prof Kompas leads us through a high-level understanding of how an economist approaches biosecurity threats with this presentation on the trade-off between the benefits and costs of surveillance and early detection in a fruit fly incursion. Using methods that combine the mapping and spread models of his CEBRA colleagues, the research delivers optimal surveillance expenditures to minimise relevant costs.

Matt Hill (CSIRO)

Integrating Phenology, Trap Models, And Data to Manage Fruit Fly Risk

Taking models to the paddock or tree scale, Dr Hill combines phenology, trapping models and orchard management data to understand how we can effectively use models to manage fruit fly risk. Showing the impact of different environments on the life stages of fruit flies, this research predicts rate of spread; information that is relevant to production and trade.

Anthony R. Clarke (Queensland University of Technology)

Predictive Phenological Modelling and the DAWE Project “Phenology, Demography and Distribution of Australian Fruit Flies”

Prof Clarke’s presentation recaps what we know about the biology and phenology of fruit fly, and  explains some of the gaps in our current understanding, which makes it  difficult to accurately model their development, behaviour and spread. His team’s research aims to fill knowledge gaps through demographic studies and day-degree models to improve our phenological understanding of Qfly.

Webinar details

Date: Monday, 6 September 2021

Time: 2:00pm-4:30pm AEST

This is an open session. 

Please add this time to your calendar – for privacy reasons we are unable to send an open calendar invitation.

Agenda

2:00 pmWelcome and overview of sessionPresented by Christina Cook, Manager, National Fruit Fly Council
2:05 pm Overview of the Predictive Modelling and Forecasting of Fruit Flies in Australia ProjectAmit K. Singh, Research Manager, Biosecurity Plant Division, Department of Agriculture, Water, and the Environment
2:10pmFruit Fly Modelling and Research TalksHazel Parry (CSIRO)

Linda Beaumont (Macquarie University)

James Camac (CEBRA)

Richard Bradhurst (CEBRA)

Tom Kompas (CEBRA)

Matt Hill (CSIRO)

Anthony R. Clarke (Queensland University of Technology)
4:00 pmAdditional questions and comments (10 minutes)All

 

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